The results published in the journal today, ScienceAre amazing. Even if global temperatures were strengthened at today’s 1.2 ° C level, an estimated 39 % of the global glacier Mass will be lost over 2020 levels-which will help more than 10 cm in the global level increase.
In new research, an international team of 21 scientists from ten countries used eight glaciers models to calculate the potential loss of snow from more than 200,000 glaciers outside Greenland and Antarctica. The team reviewed a wide range of global temperature scenarios, assuming that the temperature in each scenario would remain permanent for thousands of years.
“The choice we make today will resonate for centuries, we will determine how many glaciers of our glaciers can be protected,” says Harry Zacolari, a global co -leader of Brussels.
Looking forward to 2100 reveals new insights
In all scenarios, the glaciers are rapidly lost over the decades and then melts for centuries – even with extra warming. This long -term response means that glaciers will continue to feel the effects of today’s heat in the future, slowly retreating the height before reaching a new balance.
Harry Zacolari explains, “One of the major strength of our study is that we were able to present global glacier evolution for the first time in multi -year hours, and did so using eight models instead of one or two.” “Most glacier studies stop at 2100, which, over time, in view of the long -term response to the glaciers, causes trouble when imitating the long -term effects of today’s climate policies.”
For example, while the limited studies of the year 2100 are estimated that about 20 % of today’s glacier mass will be lost in the future warming, but new research shows that in current conditions, it will double when multi -century time scales will be considered. “We know that about 40 percent of the glacier Mass are ‘wasted’ to effectively disappear.
The melting glacier shows the reality of global warming
“Glacier has good indicators of climate change because their retreat allows us to see how the climate is changing. However, since they have long adjusts the scales, their current size reduces the severity of climate change, which is worse today.
In addition to contributing to the surface rise, glacier damage can have far -reaching consequences. This threatens the availability of fresh water, increases the risk of glacier risks such as floods and land sliding, and endangers the tourism economies fed from glacier. The effects of these clashes will be felt in regions and races.
“These effects indicate the significance of existing climate policies,” says Harry Zikolari. “Our study painfully makes it clear that every part of the degree is important. If we manage to limit the temperature to +1.5 ° C instead of +2.7 ° C, we can still save the glacier from the snow.”
Current policies are expected that the average global warming is +2.7 ° C. As Zacolari emphasizes, the degree of heat between +1.5 ° C and +3.0 ° C plays a decisive role in the glacier loss. Simplicity: Each extra 0.1 ° C warming, the world is at risk of losing about 2 % more of its glacier ice.
To cooperate in the year without the protection of glaciers
“This study is an important partnership for the protection of the United Nations International Year Glaciers, emphasizing the urgent need for global climate action to protect the world’s glaciers,” “ETH Zuric’s professor of glacvos and Swiss Federal Institute for Earth, and Earth, and Earth, for the Jungle, and the Swiss Federal Institute.
His research group played a central role in producing new results in the Laboratory of Hydrolex, Hydroology and Glassology (VAW). The entire study, headed by Zikolari and Schuster, was conducted as part of the Glacier Model Intercontinentian Project (Glacier MIP) and is connected by the World Claimat Research Program (WCRP) climate and the Creasifer (CLIC) project.
Farinoti notes that release Science Is consistent with the opening of the study High -level International Conference on Glacier ProtectionThe President of the Tajikistan, through the UN resolution, launched the United Nations for the protection of the Glaciers, and later, the UN’s process for the Croatical Sciences 2025-2034.
On Swiss, the Federal Department of Foreign Affairs (FDFA) was invited to support the event organization, especially in drafting that the pressure glacier declaration plans to become. Daniel Farinoti, on his behalf, is working as an FDFA adviser in preparation for the declaration.
