As the climate warms, so do Australian mountain dragons

Climate change is driving many of Australia’s native animals to extinction, and the answers to their future survival may lie in the fossil record.

New research was published today Current biology The Museum is an international collaboration with the Victoria Research Institute and the Museum Fair Nichende Berlin. The study shows that changing climate conditions have led to increasingly smaller and more isolated populations of the endangered Australian mountain dragon (Rainkenia demensis) over thousands of years.

The study combines fossil evidence from natural history museums with genetic data from preserved specimens to uncover how species have responded to environmental changes in the past and what this means for the future.

Dr Jane Melville, Senior Curator of Terrestrial Vertebrates at the Museum Victoria Research Institute, said the research showed that species had been pushed to the mountains by climate change.

“During the last Ice Age, about 20,000 years ago, mountain dragons occupied a very wide range in south-eastern Australia, including regions such as Kangaroo Island and Narcoort in South Australia,” Dr Melville said.

“Today, that population is extinct. The remaining populations in Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania are more genetically isolated than in the past, and if global temperatures continue to rise, these lizards will eventually have nowhere left.”

By using advanced microCT imaging to identify small fossil fragments and combine this information with genomic data from modern specimens, the team was able to track long-term shifts in species range and genetic diversity.

These findings suggest that low-altitude populations are already undergoing genetic decline, while cooler, higher-altitude habitats are becoming less suitable due to global warming. This makes Rankinia deminensis a clear warning sign for other reptiles that share the same ecosystem.

Reptiles are particularly vulnerable to climate change because they cannot actively regulate their body temperature. Similar distribution and genetic patterns have been observed in other species, such as the blue-tongued blue-tongued lizard, Tlica nigrolotia, suggesting that a number of reptile species in southeastern Australia may suffer a similar fate.

The collections of the Natural History Museum proved essential to this discovery. Fossils, bones and preserved specimens held at Museum Victoria and other institutions provide an unparalleled record of Australian biodiversity over time, making it possible to connect the past, present and future of endangered species.

Lead author Dr. Tal Ram, former Ph.D. student at the Museums Victoria Research Institute said the study highlighted the value of the new research field “conservation paleobiology” and the urgent need to update conservation strategies to account for climate-driven habitat loss.

“By learning from the past, we can make better predictions and decisions for the future,” said Dr Ram. “Our findings show how climate change can rapidly affect biodiversity and why protecting habitats is more critical now than ever.”

“By studying preserved specimens and fossils in museum collections, we can see how species have responded to past environmental challenges and use these insights to inform future conservation,” said Dr Noreen Weiss, director of the Museums Victoria Research Institute. “The past has important lessons for conserving the biodiversity we have.”

Visitors to Melbourne Museum can view 3D models of mountain dragons in the Research Institute Gallery and explore Our Amazing Planet, Museum Victoria’s state-of-the-art science and biodiversity gallery, inspiring visitors to care for our planet for generations to come.